Mining Space in 2030

Technologies like nano-bots which can enter your body to repair internal organs or fight disease have captured the imagination of the masses for since the 80s. Remember Inner Space? Mining, is less attractive… it’s downright dirty work. Most of us think of blood diamonds or tragic accidents in West Virginia, and fail to realize just how amazing the future of mining will be. And just how much it will impact our world.

Mining Space in 2030

While the idea of space tourism has been around for years, leisure rides on fancy spacecraft are not what’s driving innovation in space travel: resources are. There are at least two types of resources we know of that are abundant in space. First, the kind that makes deep space exploration possible (i.e. rocket fuel); and second, rare-earth materials.

Making rocket fuel in space is a critical part of deep space exploration, or even mining. The amount of energy it takes to leave Earth is more than the amount it takes to get to moon from Earth orbit. Being able to refuel from space (building in space, say on the moon, would be a next step) would significantly reduce the cost of space travel. 

Once we can produce rocket fuel in space then we won’t need to carry the fuel it takes to reach the Moon or Mars (or some mineral rich asteroids) with us on launch. Carrying less fuel, which is really heavy, would dramatically reduce the amount of fuel required to escape Earth’s gravity significantly reducing the cost of every launch. Planetary Resources, arguably the coolest space company out there (sorry SpaceX), has a great video explaining all of this:

Critics would argue that science and exploration are not the primary motivations for companies like Planetary Resources (nor their benefactors, among them Google). Rather, they claim they are motivated by profits alone. Perhaps, that's true (though I don't agree). Another abundant resource in space is platinum. Platinum and other rare metals found on Earth come from meteors, and we now have the ability to speculate asteroids to identify which ones are likely to contain them. It’s estimated that just one asteroid of moderate size could contain as much or more platinum than has ever been mined on Earth. Control of these resources could potentially mean a shift power from those who control terrestrial resources to those who control extraterrestrial resources.

That said, while it may be profitable to mine for platinum and other rare metals in space, the motivation for doing is not purely capitalistic. It’s an essential step forward in human civilization, and the technology required to mine space will lead to incredible innovations that benefit everyone.

Lunar Base Stations

The moon could become a critical base for long-term space operations, as well as a source of valuable resources. Turns out that while asteroids are full of platinum and water for rocket fuel, the moon is full of a unique form of helium called HE-3. In fact, this stuff is so valuable it makes sustainable lunar mining operations fueled by robotic space miners hauling in nearby asteroids sound reasonable. That’s because HE-3 is considered a key component of nuclear fusion, and while it is extremely rare on Earth --and extremely expensive at $75,000 per ounce-- it is abundant on the moon.

40 tonnes of HE-3 would power all of the United States for an entire year, without accounting for innovations between now and when it becomes available. The United States, China, and Russia all have plans to build mining operations on the moon. In fact, Russia has announced plans to have a permanent settlement on the moon by 2030 stating “we are going to the moon, forever.”

Current estimates say there is about 1,000,000 tonnes of HE-3 on the moon. There are 35,274 ounces in 1 tonne, and each ounce is worth $75,000… so that is $2,645,550,000 per tonne. So multiply that by a million. The price of HE-3 will come down once we can mine it safely and efficiently, but even even a steep reduction in price-per-ounce would leave lucrative margins.

And that's without considering the iron, gold, and other valuable stuff to be had on the moon. Taking into consideration HE-3, additional resources, and the potential value of more than 600,000 asteroids (and counting) many of which could contain more platinum than has ever been mined on Earth in history, and continuous operations on the moon to mine and refine space resources quickly becomes a priority.

Lunar base made by 3-D printers: http://bit.ly/1Dom6hr

Moving Forward

Technology is advancing so rapidly it’s difficult to imagine what the world will be like even 15 years from now. That said, what is currently being developed is pretty amazing. Semi-autonomous robots that swarm and work together to complete complex tasks like navigating to an asteroid, confirming it has the desired resources (i.e. water, platinum), bagging and tagging said asteroid, then hauling it back to the Moon where the minerals will be extracted, all the while harvesting the water along the way. That's amazing. 

To accomplish this the robots will be at least semi-intelligent, able to improvise and avoid obstacles, and probably learn. Laser communications, Artificial Intelligence, new propulsion systems, advanced solar energy collection and storage, more advanced avionics, data science and predictive algorithms, assembly and materials, not to mention the next duct tape or tang!

Naturally, robotic space miners will be limited to the abilities we provide them. The prospect of swarms of space-bots can be troubling though. By 2030 at least four nations could be launching fleets of robotic space miners: Japan, China, Russia, and the United States. While space is abundant, Earth is not. It is within reason to assume that conflicts might arise, but with any luck the abundance of resources in space will be enough to avoid them. Laws are already being written to address the issues around mining and ownership of lunar plots and asteroids.

2015 NRF Big Show Recap

The National Retail Federation’s 104th Annual Big Show was amazing. More than 35,000 executives and the like attended the world’s largest expo for retail. It was my first show, and it was truly awesome. I came back with several new perspectives and insights, as well as reaffirmed confidence in the trajectory of omnichannel retailing. For me, this has been an area of interest for several years so it is exciting to final attend in the Big Show, and see how quickly we are approaching the vision for the Future of Retail -- something many of us have been working for since 2009 or even earlier.

My high level takeaway is that omnichannel retailing is the evolving standard for retail. Retailers will implement a variety of tactics to further implement Omnichannel into their business and marketing operations, with In-Store Experiences central to most aspects of their Omnichannel strategy.

Omnichannel

Omnichannel is an evolving new standard for retail which prioritizes the customer, which requires business practices to adapt to a complex customer journey and marketing practices to adapt to a new “segment of one.”

Fulfillment: Omnichannel fulfillment is a major issue for retailers. This requires Real-Time Inventory accessible from all stores, in-other-words centralized; Distributed Order Management, or the ability to accept and fulfill orders (and update inventory in real-time) from across channels: online, mobile, in-store. This enables drop-shipping from local stores to reduce fulfillment time (online orders); recommendations for local stores where desired inventory is in-stock and can be purchased for pick-up (mobile); have an item shipped from the store, or have an item in a different size, color, etc shipped from a different store for pick-up at a local store or directly to the customer (in-store). Some good examples of omnichannel fulfillment included Netsuite’s “Customer Commerce”

RFID: Omnichannel fulfillment can be implemented without RFID, but achieve the full promise of Intelligent Fulfillment technology such as RFID will be necessary. Real-Time logistics and inventory data, as well as in-store tracking of products and even people (e.g. Intel presented an in-store tracking solution which integrated RFID into a shopping bag), as well as unique customer experiences which simply product discovery and savings.

Segment of One: Aggregating Individual Data combined with Granular Data in Stores, Distribution Centers, and up the Supply Chain will allow for segmentation on an individual basis. This will fulfill the promise of personalization where predictive models based on averages have failed. Technology innovations for real-time inventory and in-store tracking will help, but gaining customers to provide individual data requires stores to innovate around consumer experiences to create value. IBM’s description of Segments of One is comprehensive (if generic), but this goes beyond a profile. Stores and consumer software should provide relevant experiences by determining the context of the store visit: Is she in a rush? Is the dwelling? Is she lost or not sure what to buy?

Actionable Data: Collecting and aggregating data from inventory, in-store tracking, etc., provides information; individual data allows us to determine context which makes data actionable. To gain individual data consumers must perceive value proportional to the risk of providing the information. Value can be created via Savings, Efficiency, and Engagement. Some examples: 78% of customer report they would like to view signs with special promotions (savings), and 67% favor in-store guidance through digital signage (efficiency).

Integrated Data: Breaking down silos is critical to realizing a truly omnichannel store, and the burden rests heavy on software providers. Data must become unified from customer-end to supplier-end and made available to the retailer for real-time analytics. A variety of middleware options to help software vendors integrate data are emerging: e.g. Mad Mobile, Highjump.

Retail Devices

Retailers will purchase a variety of devices that align to their omnicommerce strategy.

Kiosks: A low-hanging fruit for retailers, new kiosks will be installed in 2015 for a variety of use-cases including: bill payment, interactive-tabletop, assisted selling, reporting and personnel management. Both Microsoft and Samsung demonstrated new kiosks, and made partnership announcements: Hardee’s and TGI Fridays will deploy self-order kiosks (Microsoft); Freshwater and ComQi will partner with Samsung to power assisted shopping.

Digital Signage: Arguably the second priority for retailers -- after actionable data -- retailers will quickly adopt digital signage as a low-hanging fruit to implement new in-store experiences as part of their omnichannel strategy. Two of the most impressive exhibits at NRF ‘15 were eBay’s Magic Mirror and Memomi by Memory Mirror (Palo Alto-based startup). Integrating digital signage with real-time data analytics, inventory and fulfillment, and presence technology will be an important part of most retailers omnichannel strategy, if not aspirational since truly integrated and actionable data is still a goal, not a reality, for most (all) retailers. Scala, Lexmark, Toshiba, Samsung, also had noteworthy digital signage exhibits. Lexmark is expected to rollout at Bestbuy, Office Depot, Safeway and 70+ more retailers.

Electronic Shelf Labels: A variant of digital signage, ESL could be a quietly emerging trend.  There were two varieties of ESL, one which uses LCD strips to display a variety of content and another which uses e-ink to dynamically display essential information typical to existing labels. The displays can be invoked by presence technology, facilitating dynamic pricing (for example) based on digital coupons stored on a mobile app.

Printer Integration: There were two solutions that addressed our printer integration problem. Ecrebo, a UK based company, which provides an SDK to interface with any printer. The other, Counect, was featured at Intel’s booth and solved the same problem using hardware called Counect Cube. This device operates as a Smart Gateway which utilizes any form of connectivity be-it Ethernet/Wi-Fi/3G/Bluetooth4.0 to interface with the printer and capture transaction data along with customer data.

mPOS: There were a host of mPOS devices from traditional POS players, though Vend and First Data’s Clover were also on site. Retailers will procure devices capable of a variety of payment methods in addition to EMV and Contactless Card. Microsoft Windows 8 POS on notebooks, desktops, tablets and phones were common as well as pairing with iPhone and Macbooks. 1D Laser Scanners, CCD Scanner, 1D/2D Image Scanners, NFC. Zebra Technologies exhibited a variety of Motorola mPOS (acquired), and Korean makers POS BANK and Bluebird had a strong presence.

In-Store Analytics

There is a wealth of information being acquired, and retailers are quickly implementing more strategies to gain better insights across multiple channels and locations. Understanding what is happening in-store is helping retailers improve marketing, assortments (merchandise), staffing, and fulfillment.

WiFi, Beacons, Cameras: Numerous companies exhibited In-Store Analytics solutions which leveraged WiFi, Bluetooth, or Cameras; the majority of them deploying devices integrating one or all of these. People Counting (check-in), Window Display Effectiveness, Customer Journey Tracking, etc. These solutions are packaged as engagement and staff management solutions, but typically were not integrated with inventory, personnel management, or CRM. Some standout companies were Nomi, Airwatch (VMWare), Euclid and RetailNext; however, there is a clear opportunity to provide truly end-to-end solutions. It is also important to note that several data science and analytics companies are forming close partnerships with device (wifi, beacon, camera) manufactures indicated consolidation is possible if not likely.

Retail Growth Strategies

Retailers are eager to grow amidst a global recovery, low cost of transportation of goods (aka cheap oil), and newly emerging markets (Southeast Asia, Africa). With intensified competition from both incumbent online retailers as well as brick-and-mortar retailers they are employing strategies to gain market share and differentiate themselves in ways that go beyond technology.

Diversification: Major retail brands are diversifying their brand with new products and services. For example, Birchbox launched a brick-and-mortar store where customers can take home product samples in addition to purchasing. Ralph Lauren opened a new flagship featuring Ralph’s Cafe, and Lululemon launched men’s line with an in-store grooming parlor.

Going Big: Several retailers presented on strategies for going global. The consistent was to do it, and do it big when you do. Launching 200 new locations as part of a regional expansion strategy was preferred to (for example) 10 new stores in the UK alone.

Storytelling: An extension of in-store experience, retailers will strive to differentiate amongst themselves and -- importantly -- against online retailers by providing a story to customers. The objective is to transform brick-and-mortar into a destination.

Examples of Future Stores

There were a few outstanding examples of technology implementations. Among them, standouts were Rebecca Minkoff, Intel, IBM-Apple, and Microsoft.

Rebecca Minkoff: Hands-down the most complete demonstration of “The Future of Retail” the store implemented useful technology to enhance the In-store shopping experience.

Intel’s Memomi (Memory Mirror): Was hands-down the coolest technology at NRF. ‘Nuf said.

IBM-Apple: IBM launched its MobileFirst for iOS retail enterprise apps Sales Assist and Pick & Pack. Each are powered by Watson, and are part of a new suit of enterprise apps which will include apps for banking, retail, insurance, financial services (insurance), telecom, government, and airlines.

“The Sales Assist app lets sales associates check customer profiles and make shopping suggestions based on purchase histories, as well as check in-store inventory, locate items in-store and arrange to ship out-of-stock items to the customer. The Pick & Pack app, meanwhile, combines in-store proximity-based tech (beacons) with back-end inventory insight to improve order fulfillment, and is 70% ready to go out-of-the-box.” - brandchannel

Microsoft End-To-End IoT: Azure HDInsight and Power BI for Office 365 makes it easy for retailers to track revenue, product searches, customer purchasing, social media activity, etc. Can easily access Power Map for Excel to represent responses to online ads, comparing by region or IP. Kinect for Windows is used for in-store tracking of product and customer movement where data is analyzed by Azure Stream Analytics. Azure Machine Learning can make predictions about individual consumers purchasing interests in coming days, weeks, months; and manage inventory in departments, stores, or region. - Microsoft Blog

Conclusion

Though the full vision of an omnichannel store is still aspirational, investments by retailers and vendors are bringing that vision closer to reality than ever before. This new paradigm in retail --a real-time, data driven, customer-focused, destination-creating, renaissance-- is evolving. I guess that means next year I can go back to New York? Hope so!

Frankly The Best "Ephemeral" Messenger

Disclaimer! SK planet is an investor in Frankly Inc. but this is in no way a “native advertisement” nor is it an official position of Frankly, SK planet, or any other business partner. No one asked me to write this, I just really like the app and want to write about it. Also I may be biased… but seriously Frankly is still awesome and you should download it right now anyway → iOS   Android

Since reading No Place To Hide, a great book about Edward Snowden and many of his revelations, I started to feel less comfortable with how Google, Facebook, or (since I live in Korea) Kakao, and most social media companies were storing my data. Naturally, a lot of people felt that way making anonymity the new black according to Digiday.

Around that same time SK planet invested in Frankly. Since I work at SK planet I’ve had the opportunity to have several great conversations with the amazing people at Frankly, and I know for sure that privacy is top-of-mind and that none of their users messages are stored. They set out to liberate social networking with a secure, snoop-proof messenger platform, period.

What’s Behind Frankly

The idea behind Frankly was that people should have a platform where they can chat frankly with each other without concerns that their conversations are being recorded. Bottom line philosophy at Frankly: our conversations on messengers should be at least as secure as conversations IRL (“in-real-life”).

Frankly gives you total control of your conversations and promises they are ephemeral so you can chat freely. Not too mention that you will have a fun and compelling experience too.  To accomplish that they have built a first class team that shares this philosophy, raised more than $20 million, and recently IPO’d in Toronto. Frankly has the runway to make their vision of a liberated social networking experience as reality.

Compelling and Secure

It can be tough to adopt a new messenger, but by making the experience compelling and totally secure Frankly has empowered early-adopters to stick it out and get their friends on the app. First, your messages will disappear forever after a few seconds. The the app also looks awesome, plus it’s really easy to customize the way your chats look and feel. You can also “pin” your messages so if you want to remember some important info or context that’s totally possible (which I think is a really neat feature), and remove sent messages you didn't mean to send or rather you hadn't sent. Of course you can also share photos, and they will evaporate as well.

Frankly is probably the best application for group chats. When you enter a group chat on Frankly, your messages are anonymous. This is the most liberating aspect of Frankly, and it makes it a great tool for candid conversation among friends and co-workers, or between brands and customers.

      

Savvy Partnerships To Realize The Vision

Getting user adoption for any app is hard, and for messengers it is really hard. In addition to its own messenger app, Frankly means to achieve their vision of liberating the chatting masses through partnerships. Their SDK is available for any business that shares their philosophy and wants an easy implementation of secure, private, anonymous messenger for their customers.

Last year Victoria’s Secret integrated Frankly’s SDK into their Pink shopping app. The app made it possible for customers, who might be concerned about their privacy whilst chatting-up and sharing photos of lingerie, to engage with the brand with texts, customizable emojis, user photos, and multiple shades of pink. 

Models were even available for live chat!

Overall My Favorite Messenger…

I really love this app, for being awesome and for executing a strategy that is aligned with their core-values. It’s too bad because more people I know aren’t on it yet, but hopefully that will change in 2015. If you’re a business who cares about your customers, get the Frankly SDK. It's a particularly good idea for retailers who want to integrate social networking into their omnichannel strategy, because they can reassure your customers the channel is secure.

Best of luck to the team, thanks for looking out for all of us, and congrats on the IPO!

Looking Forward to 2015: Part Two

While mPOS will drive significant disruption in 2015 for transaction processing, it is also enabling consumers to embrace mobile payments. That's because EMVco has designed EMV to work with NFC for contactless payments. The rise of Host Card Emulation (HCE), a term attributed to the founders of SimplyTapp, is also a driving force since it lowers the barrier for mobile payments by eliminating the need for hardware called a Secure Element (SE).

It’s all very exciting, and the bottom-line: mobile payments will become a force majeure among payment methods within a few years. Business Insider predicts US Mobile In-Store Payment volume will grow 172% for the next 5 years. Data compiled by Statista.com has breaking $700B by 2017.

Statista.com predicts mobile payments will break $700B in just two years.

Mobile Payments Become a Normal Payment Method in 2015  

First, I wrote about this last year in a post about digital wallets, when Apple Pay was still a blip on the buzz-radar. Digital Wallets really needed mobile payments to come-of-age, and now they are. 

Mobile payments got a huge injection of consumer confidence from the release of Apple Pay. Anyone would assume Apple’s share of global mobile payment transactions will be significant, eventually. But remember, there are several very real competitors. Just a few years ago many predicted that PayPal would “win” the mobile payments market, now Apple Pay is all the rage. The reality is there probably will not be any clear winners, not for a while anyway.

Products like Softcard, MCX, Apple Pay, Google Wallet, and not to mention whatever Amazon is cooking-up, are all vying for transaction volume in 2015, with a tipping-point of relevancy approaching somewhere between now and 2017. Venture Capital, Credit Card Networks (Mastercard and Visa), Banks, OEMs, everyone seems to be making some bets on mobile payments.

Apple Pay

Apple is driving US merchant demand for NFC, period. Other solutions existed for years, but in the US they never drew merchant adoption en masse. That's not the case everywhere, in fact NFC payments are so common in South Korea that literally everyone uses some form of stored-value payment card which is enabled by NFC. However, the unique position of the US means global adoption is now underway.

US merchant adoption was slow until Apple Pay. Business Insider reported that VeriFone, the largest provider of countertop-terminals in the US, has seen a spike in sales of NFC enabled devices since the launch of Apple Pay. That said, Apple Pay is unlikely to become the leader in mobile payments in spite of the important role it plays in growing the market. 

And in fact Apple Pay is not garnering the kind of adoption many had hoped for. Some reports show 1% of transaction volume on mobile can be attributed to Apple Pay, not bad I guess but nothing to really brag about. One report also showed that less than 5% of iPhone owners who could enable Apple Pay had done so, and among them on 30% had used it. That said, Wholefoods (one of the most popular merchants for Apple Pay) claims they are witnessing “significant growth” in usage. So there is a ways to go for Apple yet, but integration of BLE and facial recognition software not to mention the Apple Watch will all drive further use of this payment method.

Google Wallet and Paypal

How do Google and Paypal feel about Apple Pay?

1. Happy, because people with Samsung phones will start using mobile payments too!
2. Frustrated, because they’ve had NFC mobile payments for years and nobody cared.
3. Worried, because this means Apple will sell more phones.

For sure A and B. Not so much C. 

Paypal and eBay split just weeks after the launch of Apple Pay. It’s unclear that Apple had anything to do with that, but it is telling. Paypal was once considered the front-runner, now they are just one in a peloton where Apple appears to be slightly ahead.

Paypal has an advantage though, it’s really a payments company and builds at least some of the components driving the competition. Braintree, now part of Paypal, supports Apple Pay and enables it for merchants along with Paypal. Paypal has solid legs in mobile payments, announcing partnerships with Samsung, Microsoft, Blackberry (um, the third-leg?), and it works on every platform. Not to mention they own the coolest P2P payment app around, Venmo.

Google has stayed in the peloton on sheer force of will. Sources say they are running a substantial deficit with Google Wallet, desperately trying to get adoption. While Apple generates demand for NFC enabled terminals literally overnight, Google couldn’t pay merchants to enable NFC and accept Google Wallet for years. That's about to change.

Google Wallet represents 4% of mobile payments while Apple Pay is estimated at 1.7% (those numbers will probably increase rapidly in 2015 for both Google and Apple). Google Wallet is also available on iOS and supports TouchID.  Google could conceivably ride the Apple Pay wave to attract iPhone users, and there is some indication this has already begun to happen. Since the launch of Apple Pay, Google Wallet usages is up 50% by some accounts. I can see Google using the powerful brand and software ecosystem to subvert Apple Pay even on iPhones, perhaps by managing receipts and bills in Google Drive. Google is already flexing its software muscles with APIs for Objects and Instant Buy.

Softcard

It’s hard to write better fiction than Softcard. The history of this telco-startup reads like historical-realism: US telcos launch mobile payments venture called ISIS, several months later a major terrorist organization called ISIS wreaks havoc on innocent people in Iraq and elsewhere, destroying all hopes of the ISIS mobile payment method becoming a household name. 

Well, ISIS is a household name but that’s not exactly what At&t had in mind.

Rebranded as Softcard and invigorated by Apple Pay, this digital wallet is signing deals with McDonald’s and Microsoft. While speaking at a conference the CEO of Softcard said he is excited about 2015 since “finally people know what my company does” thanks to Apple Pay. However, the road ahead is going to be filled with challenges for Softcard.

MCX

Apple Pay was the clear buzz winner in 2014, but MCX was a solid second. The Merchant Consumer Exchange (MCX) is a consortium of the largest retailers in the United States -- in some cases the world -- which has committed to launching its own mobile payment method in 2015. The total transaction volume for MCX members was estimated at $1 Trillion last year. MCX made headlines after Apple Pay was launched when some of the member retailers, including CVS, “unplugged” Apple Pay citing an exclusivity clause in their MCX membership agreement.

There were a slew of negative posts by Apple aficionados from well known tech news sites, but many of them exaggerated the situation. The reality is that MCX is in an excellent position because it is retailer owned, which means loyalty rewards can be built in. It also means retail members are incentivized to promote the payment method, because it is designed with consideration for what merchants consider most valuable: consumer data.

Starbucks

Starbucks continues to be the unlikely leader in mobile payments, to the tune of $1.5 Billion in transaction volume, or 15% of all transactions in the United States (6 million transactions per week).

Starbucks mobile app has altered the course of mobile payments, proving that loyalty is a driving force for mobile adoption. By combining loyalty and digital stored-value Starbucks created a model which is the envy of many retailers and technology companies. According to Starbucks’ CEO, they are receiving numerous request to white-label their app for other QSRs.

Just how far ahead of Apple is Starbucks? According to Wired, each of the 1 million Apple Pay users who registered in the first few days of the launch would have to buy a cup of coffee every day to match Starbucks weekly transaction volume.

Mobile Payments will take over… in time

The sheer number of viable mobile payment methods means that for the next few years we won’t see a clear mobile payments champion. In addition to those I’ve briefly covered here there are several well-known startups including Square, Clinkle, and Coin. Some are apps, and some are programmable cards. Samsung is yet to respond to Apple Pay, but it is coming. Several friends at Samsung have been working on this since mid-2014, so it won't be long before Sammy's massive market share further accelerates mobile payment adoption.

Though it is unclear who operate the dominant mobile payment method, consumers will continue to use more than one for the next few years.

Looking Forward to 2015: Part One

Last year saw some major disruptions begin to take hold in finance and payments. While the jury is still out on some of these disruptive technologies like Bitcoin, others are going to continue to reshape entire industries including mPOS and a host of mobile payments options from Apple Pay to Coin.

Bitcoin or Bust in 2015?

As did many people, I got very excited about Bitcoin in 2014. I watched some documentaries, read some books, downloaded some apps…. As I dove deeper into this incredible technology the more I wondered if it could really turn the corner, become mainstream. Bitcoin certainly made steps forward toward becoming mainstream, including integrations with Paypal and recently Microsoft (sort-of).  Coindesk, and important source of information about the crypto-currency, publishes and maintains a list of ways you can use bitcoins to make purchases. However, while at first glance it is impressive, considering the currency is only a few years old. there are some important retailers (most?) absent from the list.

Bitcoin’s biggest problem has been price volatility (aside from highly publicized thefts). Key to solving this will be an increase in real transactions. More retailers accepting bitcoin means more transaction volume, and the general reasoning goes that the price of a bitcoin will then reflect that transaction volume rather than speculative trading causing spikes in the crypto-currency’s price.

Yet despite the philosophical reasons why many people choose to use bitcoin, many people are attracted to bitcoin and other crypto-currencies by stories of massive fortunes being made out of seemingly thin air. As the price stabilizes (it hasn’t, it’s been going down most of 2014 and is now at around $280) we may see less people attracted to the currency as its attractiveness to speculators wanes. PYMNTS recently published a nice overview of Bitcoin’s interesting 2014, and the conflicting views for its future in 2015.

Challenges aside, the technology behind bitcoin… um, Bitcoin(?)... is truly revolutionary and lot’s of investment is pouring in. There are thousands of startups (more than 500 on Angel List alone) working with bitcoin. We’re probably passing over the hype-hump, and coming down to reality where real innovation is going to get traction, companies like Ripple or Blockstream.  

In 2015 new innovations using the Blockchain to create “sidechains” like Blockstream, or bitcoin inspired technologies like Ripple’s protocol, may become the true legacy of Nakamoto. Some of the most notable entrepreneurs and investors in the Valley seem to think so.

The Unstoppable mPOS

While mPOS growth was steady it’s unlikely anyone in the mainstream had it pegged as one of the most disruptive technologies of the next couple years. That is, until millions of credit card and other personal information was hacked from major retailers in 2014. Right?

Wrong. 2014 seemed like one of the worst years for privacy in history, but it wasn’t. Starting the year off with Target (which really happened in 2013, but anyway), we saw Staples and Home Depot have severe security breaches, not to mention Sony. It was bad, but it may have been exaggerated. In fact, since Target was hacked in 2013 and can be excluded from any lists of 2014 data breaches… other than Home Depot (maybe) the 2014 hacks don’t make the top 5 according to CNN. 2013 probably cost more, an estimate $7.1 billion; and according to credit card fraud fraud in the U.S. accounted for 47% of all credit card fraud worldwide in 2012.  

The real story in 2014 was the U.S. payments industry is finally making changes to address problems which have seen data breaches as severe or worse than 2014’s since the 80’s. Mastercard and Visa both announced that as of October next year they will be penalizing merchants for fraud that occurs because the retailer does not have an EMV payment system. This has prompted retailers, payments processors and acquirers, retail software companies, around the world to take action, fast. The migration to EMV alone is going to cost billions of dollars in spending, and has many retailers looking at mPOS as their next upgrade. The resulting displacement of entrenched incumbents could mean untold fortunes for challengers.

mPOS is at the center of a dramatically changing payments landscape. Startups like Square, ShopKeep, Revel Systems, or Poynt arguably have a headstart on entrenched giants like Verifone, NCR. In addition to the accepting EMV, the advantages of mPOS are cost (they’re cheaper), integrated software for inventory or marketing, they arguable reduce wait-time (at least at restaurants), and may even increase sales due to reduced abandonment. Some major players like First Data and Heartland Payments are beginning to acquire mPOS startups to gain an advantage. PYMNTS recently published an excellent overview of the advantages of mPOS, what the incumbent POS providers are doing about it as well as some of their challengers.

Bottom line is more than half of retailers surveyed by RIS (Retail Info Systems) plan to buy one or more mPOS for the next upgrade, and 25% say they are going to decrease spending on fixed POS. The number is higher when you look specifically at restaurants. Business Insider estimates the share of U.S. retailers who implement mPOS is going to grow up to 50% by the end of 2015, and reach almost 80% by 2019.

Expect to see lot’s of new mPOS systems in 2015… not to mention most of your favorite stores accepting one or more type of mobile payment method [to be continued].  

Jamming with Storybots!

Though last year my worked pivoted away from EdTech to stored-value (aka eGC) I’m still facinated by the way technology is reshaping the way we learn at all ages. Of course, since my son is almost 4 years old I’ve been mostly fascinated by EdTech for him. These days, it’s amazing what he finds on YouTube and our latest awesome discovery has been Storybots.

I’m So Hot

Most people my age (late Millennials in their early 30s) are familiar with JibJab, and if you’re not please go here. Back during the Bush Jr. years, JibJab made hilarious political parodies and became one of the funniest web services around. A couple of years ago they refocused that creative genius on teaching children, launching Storybots. At the time JibJab already had something like 20,000,000 registered users for their eCards service (which allow you to put your face in some pretty funny places… just check the link above).

When asked why, the two founders pointed to the fact their own kids don’t watch TV, they watch Netflix on the iPad. And I’m guessing Youtube. Storybots was born to be a compelling place for kids and parents to engage with each other on the new mobile medium. The suite of Storybot apps include “Starring You” books and videos, learning videos, abc videos, and activity sheets.  

Really compelling content YOU WANT to watch with your kids

While the other apps are fun, my son and I are raving about the learning videos. The content is so compelling we even play it in the car. Songs range from smooth raps about space which will remind you of old school rap, hilarious folk-rock about animals like the Chicken-bob or Tiger In the Jungle, and even songs that teach children how their body works.

The list of amazing content is pretty long, and getting longer.

If you have a young child and an iPad, you need to get into Storybots. Their learning apps are affordable and the videos on Youtube are free… check it out!

Ditching Our Wallets for Mobile

I’ve been a fan of brick-and-mobile for years, and looks like the competition to win that space is getting more interesting. Paypal, Amazon and Google, have all been making major strides toward mobile payments. Apple is expected to make announcements soon, with rumors flying about NFC support and a new mobile wallet. Apple has also been working with Qualcomm’s Gimbal to deploy a BLE platform reportedly for brick-and-mobile commerce.

SK Telecom’s own subsidiary SK Planet --disclaimer, this is where I work-- has also entered the fray with the new Slyde app in the USA and Syrup in South Korea. Both of these are using a mix of awesome proprietary BLE technology, and in Korea Syrup is using NFC (which is an old hat in Korea, I could live with just NFC here if I tried) as well.

Amazon’s Buzz Kill

Jeff Bezos is faltering… at least for now. The fire phone (or whatever) is terrible, even if it wasn’t a blatant maneuver to get consumers to buy even more on Amazon. This mobile play is accompanied by a new Amazon Wallet, which is available for Android devices and let’s people upload gift cards to manage their stored-value payment arsenal. Nice move by Amazon, but seems like many consumers are peeved that Bezos Co. keeps coming after their personal information en force. Several people can be seen complaining about Amazon on various forums, and they are not alone.

Even Walmart is annoyed at Amazon. Perceiving the Kindle Fire as a “trojan horse” the company hasn’t been selling them... apparently since 2012. And given Amazon’s history the new mobile wallet could get a reputation for using payment and gift card purchase history in order to… yup, get you to buy more recommended stuff on Amazon products.

Google Wallet Lackluster

I like Google Wallet and there is a lot of potential there, but so far it is lackluster. However, the super-tech-star is really smart about their payment rep. Unlike Amazon, Google is positioning their payment solution along-side all the others… including Carrier Billing, and now PayPal.

While there isn't a lot of talk about Android and BLE in the US (Apple gets most of the coverage it seems), Android and NFC go together like peas in a pod. And if South Korea is any indication adoption will accelerate soon. A host of devices have NFC support, so it is really a matter of time before enough retailers have an NFC enabled POS in the US.  

Apple Bites...

…on some of that smartphone market share. Or that would be my prediction for 2015. I think it is likely Apple is going to nail mobile payments in the next year and that the superior experience could lead to a slight bump in market share. Despite the naysayers, if Apple nails the mobile wallet… yeah a lot of people are gonna want it.

With the rumored introduction of NFC and the rolling-out of a massive BLE network with partners such as Qualcomm and a host of retailer partners we could see Apple pave the way for real mobile wallet adoption in the USA.

SK Planet

A fairly large player in Korea, and lot’s of experience in commerce here, SK Planet is making a mobile commerce push into the US. Though the combined population of Los Angeles and the  Bay Area would probably be about the same as the population of South Korea… that doesn't mean you can ignore it. NFC payments and smart chips in credit cards are old hats here (to the tone of at least 8 years) while neither technology has real traction in the US. After years as part of SK Telecom, and the fact that everyone who works here uses NFC and smart-chip credit cards everyday (as does just about everyone in Korea), I believe what the company lacks in market presence it can make up with experience.

Currently in beta, SK Planet's US affiliate's mobile wallet, the new Slyde app (www.slydenow.com), could be more broadly available later this year. In Korea the Syrup app (previously called Smart Wallet) just launched BLE enabled services in limited locations near Seoul, adding to the already successful loyalty card wallet and coupon clipping features available since June this year.

Haters Gonna Hate

There are still lot’s of naysayers who believe the traditional wallet will not be replaced by the mobile wallets. They all seem to be in the USA, while almost anyone in Korea agrees that it is just a matter of time. That’s because of two realities here: smartphone penetration, and nearly ubiquitous NFC payment options. 

Naysayers claim that cash is available everywhere and that mobile wallets on smartphones “haven’t even come close” to the same level of acceptance. That may be true in the US, but consider that in Korea smartphones enjoy 90% penetration and 100% of people riding the subway are using NFC payment already. Not to mention probably 100% of young consumers are using either T-Money, Cashbee, or some other method of NFC payment at a host of places everyday.

In fact the problem isn’t getting people to move from cash, the problem is getting people to move to an app when they already have a card or phone or both that is enabled via smart-chip or NFC to make payments just about anywhere. So enough with the C.R.E.A.M. defense against mobile wallets. If Korea is any indication of a mature "mobile" economy, and arguably it is more so that the US, the future is bright for mobile wallets.

Personally, once a mobile wallet app is ready which truly makes my credit cards go away, my wallet is going in the trash. We are getting closer every day to when we only need our phones, and I can’t wait. It’s so close that the last time I went to the airport I consciously decided not to buy a wallet, because I knew it would be outdated soon.

Amazon's future could be acquisition...

Well, it's a gloomy Monday but don't let the weather keep you down. It just means some makeoli and Korean seafood pancakes are waiting for you somewhere. ;-)

Last week most of us witnessed Amazon's unveiling of the new Prime Delivery drones. Bezos says the service will be running in 4-5 years, despite the challenges and many skeptic reviewers it is entirely possible that will happen. The doubters claim three major issues: vandalism, safety, and theft. 

The real BIG THREE challenges have nothing to do with these challenges (which anyone with a mild imagination can figure out how to solve). Rolling out a drone delivery network takes... well, first a (1) NETWORK! Creating any kind of network, software or hardware, is not small task and requires lot's of really smart and creative folks from all levels of abstraction to get down. The next REALLY BIG challenge is the (2) OS. What will run these systems? Android? Not likely. Which leads me to the FINAL BIG challenge, the (3) battery. Even if you manage to get the right network, and the right OS... you still need a battery -- of course, if you read my email about Graphene you might not consider this to great a challenge!

Enter... the entrepreneur. 

Matternet is an awesome startup that will be either the next big platform or, at the very least, a significant acquisition down the road. Backed by Andreesen Horowitz (two guys who have a knack for early-stage investing I'd say) the company is rolling out it's network where the walled gardens have the North can happily get involved... Africa. How do you convince an unwilling populace to adopt the technology? Make it about helping people (since it is ultimately anyway!). How do you get your medicine in 30min instead of 5 days? Drones. 

The company was founded way back in 2011, and has since developed it's first drone which can carry a small package. Their ultimate goal is to deploy delivery drones which can carry up to 1000kg. 

Enjoy... and BTW if you're from Seoul watch the video for a neat surprise. 

https://mttr.net

Bio-hacking, the end of Jolt, and the future of retail

A few years ago I wrote a short essay about “Flow” and how the ideas in that book apply to a world where mobile computing enhances every moment of our lives. I never published it or anything, just showed it to a few friends. However, I did mention those ideas in my first post this year where I said that photo-sharing apps (and other “time-wasters”) are giving people a false sense of productivity and hence happiness.

My point is that mobile computing is going to make us happier, assuming Mihaly’s book is true. We can maximize the output of our day, improving our knowledge about things that interest us, and also ourselves. Apps that allow us to track (or check-in) to routines or habits -- like Lift, backed by Evan Williams -- are becoming very common and fairly popular. Even smarter tools like the products Nike has been pumping out for iOS users, or some of the new health care applications that can track all sorts of data about your body, are getting enough traction today that one can easily envision them becoming part of mainstream medicine within a few years.  

Bio-Hacking

Along with all this new technology, an avalanche of information about diet and health has been hitting the bookstores and blogs for the past decade. And it’s only getting better/worse(?). One of my favorite sites, the bulletproof executive, comes right out and says they update the site every few months at new breakthroughs occur (and are hopefully confirmed). This trend have a new name, that’s “bio-hacking” or the idea of hacking our own bodies to improve productivity at home, at work, in the bedroom, on the field, etc.

Are the days of Jolt-powered nerds at an end? It looks like it, sort-of. While there will always be the more cosmopolitan nerd who craves espresso romano, wine, and gourmet cheese -- yours truly ;-) -- the impact of a new generation of super-nerds who are hacking software AND their bodies could be something incredible. Most people will go through a super bio-hacking phase, and return to a better (though not totally ideal) lifestyle. However, the interest in itself means we’ll see more and more software integrating with our lifestyle goals, helping us overcome craving for example, or somehow infusing us with positive reinforcement when embarking on the challenging endeavor to break.. um create new habits.

How this will impact marketing

Data will become more accurate and more specific, of course. Imagine we have these really awesome applications which “speak” to machines at retail shops, and instead of promoting whatever junk-food is the craze… it knows we are on diet (it should even know what our streak is) and it recommends we purchase items that support that diet. Great right!? Furthermore, with the right technology installed at the store your software could be alert when you veer too close to say… the ice-cream, sending some kind of notification that “hey, you should get some apples” or “if you are craving something cold and sweet, why not a fruit popsicle!” You get the idea.

This could transform the image of many retailers, and could really improve the happiness of millions.

Investing In Education

Investment in education startups has boomed since early 2012, with a range of investors pumping in more than $1B into companies and funds. The number of investors in the space is staggering, even Ashton Kutcher is hip on Ed Tech with an investment in Y-Combinator graduate Clever back in 2012.

While Paul Graham’s Y-Combinator has worked with only a few Ed Tech start-ups (other than Clever), a cohort of new incubators and accelerators focusing on Ed Tech are emerging, led by  Imagine K12.

Imagine K12

Decades ago schools spent millions on technology (CD ROMs galore), but nothing really changed… just the medium. Today everything from publishing to management systems are up for grabs. Imagine K12 is looking to grow the companies of the future in the space, becoming the first incubator for Ed Tech to support entrepreneurs who all share a vision for truly impactful technology innovation for education.

Founded by a few big names in Silicon Valley who saw the next wave of school reform as Ed Tech’s new moment, Imagine K12 graduated their first cohort in 2011. Their portfolio includes hapara, NoRedInk, LearnSprout, Class Dojo, Bloomboard, and so many more. Awesome.

The “Most Active” Investors

While the list of firms and funds investing in Ed Tech is long, there are some standouts. In addition to the new incubators or accelerators focusing on Ed Tech, including Imagine K12, lot's of funds specific-to education exist in addition to older VC firms.

Some of the more active investors in Ed Tech are:

NewSchools Venture Fund

Founded way back in 1998, this fund is unique because it operates as a non-profit. The fund has invested “nearly $180 million” in “more than 100 nonprofit and for-profit organizations” and claims that through its investments reaches 12 million students in the United States. Impressive… most impressive.

Relatively recent investments in companies that I think are pretty neat are edSurge, hapara, and NoRedInk.

500 Startups

So much can be said about 500, it’s pretty much just awesome. Some recent investments in Ed Tech have been MindSnacks, Magoosh, and Motion Math. Looks like 500 is focusing on Game-based Learning and (the cash-cow of education) Test-Prep.

Learn Capital

These guys are rocking Ed Tech, boasting the most impressive portfolio of investments. No kidding, the founders of Learn Captial are seasoned Ed Tech entrepreneurs who have exited several companies to big players like HMH, Marvel.

Investments by Learn Capital are truly press worthy, check out their coverage including Edmodo, Coursera, Udemy, ClassDojo, Kalibrr, and more.

ReThink Education

New York City is in the Ed Tech game too, that’s where ReThink Education is leading the way to east-coast incubation for the next big-win. While a new fund, they have made some exciting investments including Bright Bytes, Education Elements, and Smarterer.

Sequoia Capital

Finally, the world-renowned iconic VC of Silicon Valley. Sequoia has not been too active in Ed Tech. However, they did invest in one of my absolute favorite companies: Inkling.

Inkling has been around for awhile now, having been developing interactive content for education since 2009. You could say they are the leaders in the space.